LA Mayoral Primary: May 2026 Polling Snapshot
May 12, 2026 | 2 min read
In our May 1–4 survey, Karen Bass leads with 22%, followed by Spencer Pratt at 18% and Nithya Raman at 16%. Rae Huang and Adam Miller are at 4% and 2%. No other candidate clears 1%. 46% are undecided on the initial ballot; after a follow-up push asking undecideds who they'd be most likely to support, undecided drops to 29% and the order becomes Bass 22, Pratt 18, Raman 16, Adam Miller 6, Rae Huang 5.
Across four publicly released polls since early March — Emerson (Mar 7–9), Berkeley IGS (Mar 9–15), UCLA Luskin (Mar 15–29), and Tavern (May 1–4) — Bass has ranged from 19% to 25%. The four-poll average is Bass 23, Pratt 13, Raman 13. Our survey is the third consecutive poll placing Raman in third.
Among the 244 respondents who picked a candidate (excluding "other" and "not sure"), 61% say they'll definitely vote for that candidate; 39% say they might change their mind.
Head-to-head matchups
We modeled three hypothetical runoffs by combining stated preferences with imputed preferences for undecideds and respondents who dropped off before the ballot test. The results:
Favorability
For context, Kamala Harris is at 62% favorable / 36% unfavorable (net +26) and Joe Biden is at 57% / 41% (net +16) among the same sample.
Issues
Asked the most pressing issue facing Los Angeles today:
Cost of living: 47%
Homelessness: 20%
Fiscal responsibility: 11%
Public safety: 10%
Federal government overreach: 8%
Road safety / crumbling infrastructure: 5%
Olympics preparation: 0%
Asked the second-most-pressing issue:
Homelessness: 32%
Cost of living: 29%
Federal government overreach: 13%
Public safety: 10%
Fiscal responsibility: 9%
Road safety / crumbling infrastructure: 7%
Olympics preparation: 0%
On changing city regulations to allow new housing units in every neighborhood across LA (n=358): 26% strongly support, 23% somewhat support, 15% neither, 8% somewhat oppose, 16% strongly oppose, 12% don't know. Combined support is 49%; combined opposition is 24%.
For the full results email data@tavernresearch.com
Methodology: Online sample of 531 likely LA primary voters, fielded text-to-web May 1–4, 2026, weighted by gender, race, age, education, match likelihood, and vote history. MOE ±6.1%. Commissioned by Growth Machine Fund, A Project of Abundance Network, and Abundance Network. AI-assisted drafting, human-verified analysis. Powered by the same tools we build for our clients.
