The Lab: Gone in Sixteen Seconds
New research with Mind the Gap: we tested ad lengths from 6 to 60 seconds across 19,470 voters. Nearly all persuasion happens in the first 15. The rest is wasted spend.
Montana Senate: Bodnar Ties Alme Head-To-Head. Alme Leads When The Field Expands.
Independent Seth Bodnar ties Republican Kurt Alme 50-50 head-to-head, but Alme leads when Bodnar and a Democrat are both on the ballot.
PA-07 Democratic Primary: Brooks Leads With One Day to Go
New Tavern Research poll: Brooks leads PA-07 at 26%, with McClure at 17% and Crosswell at 16%. 31% undecided the day before the primary. The race isn't over.
NY-12 Democratic Primary: Bores Leads at 20%. The largest Bloc is Still Unclaimed.
The NY-12 Democratic Primary isn't a three-way tie. It's three candidates running three separate primaries in one election — and 28% of voters haven't picked a lane yet.
The Cutting Room Floor – May 15, 2026
This week's leftovers: Washington-speak gets penalized on Iran (-6.3 pts), wallet arguments beat doctrine by 10.6, Trump banks +23 on Ukraine without selling the narrative, Tennessee voters oppose the new map 47-26, and 86% say the government runs for the few. Take what you like. Have a weekend.
MaxDiff Memo: The CEOs Are the Trump-Xi Summit's Real Vulnerability
Voters back a White House visit for Xi by 20 points and oppose the Musk-Cook-Huang Beijing delegation by 17.5. The vulnerability is the CEOs in the room.
Voters Don't Want Global Health Money Paying for USAID's Dismantling.
61% of voters say we spend too much on foreign aid. The same voters oppose redirecting $3.2 billion in global health and development money to cover USAID shutdown costs, 38–31. They back a Senate-requested restoration timeline 48–22. The cleaner fight isn't defending the agency. It's the timeline.
LA Mayoral Primary: May 2026 Polling Snapshot
A May 1–4 survey of 531 likely LA primary voters: Bass 22%, Pratt 18%, Raman 16%. Head-to-heads, favorability, and the issues driving the race.
Virginia Voters Back the Court and the Map at the Same Time.
Virginia voters back the state Supreme Court's decision to strike down the voter-approved congressional map, 40–35. The same voters back Democratic officials' push to restore that map for 2026, 37–30. Between a quarter and a third are still undecided on each question. There's room for both arguments because the public hasn't picked one.
Ricketts Has an Independent Problem in Nebraska.
In Tavern's latest Nebraska Senate survey, Osborn leads Ricketts 47-42 in a head-to-head matchup, with 12% undecided. That margin is modest. The reason it exists is not complicated: Osborn is dominating independents.
The Cutting Room Floor – May 8, 2026
A $1B East Wing security upgrade tucked inside a $72B immigration enforcement bill is polling worse than the bill itself (46–24 against keeping it in). "Mass deportations are coming" splits 41–40, but the mechanism polls 12 points better than the label. And 86% of voters still think government runs for a few big interests — the soil every other story lands in.
The Playbook: A Case Study – What We Do vs. The Normal Guys.
Most campaigns make ads on stale data and consultant instinct. Tavern tests 200+ variations and hits the air in 5 days. Stop guessing and start winning.
Louisiana Voting Rights Act: Lead With District Lines.
Adding the Voting Rights Act framing to Louisiana made voters more opposed, not less. Opposition widened from a 3-point margin to 6 when judges and the VRA were named. A third of voters are still undecided, and the legal frame isn't going to win them.
MaxDiff Memo: Frame Ice Funding As A Blank Check Lacking Financial Oversight
Voters aren’t debating immigration policy—they’re rejecting unchecked power. The top ICE funding message hits 70.9% by framing it as a “blank check” with no oversight. Here’s what works—and what fails.
The Cutting Room Floor – May 1, 2026
Press trust is at 0.4%. Foreign aid opposition is near-unanimous. And 79% of voters support the death penalty in principle — but only 44% back the specific DOJ expansion. This week’s cutting room floor has the numbers that didn’t fit anywhere else.
TrumpRx: Side Effects Include Nausea, Vomiting, and a Net -24.
A drug-pricing program polling at net -24 while the president sits at -12 isn’t a healthcare win — it’s a drag. Tavern’s latest data shows TrumpRx is the worst-performing policy in the survey, and the Protonix price comparison is why. Here’s what the numbers actually say about Kennedy’s HHS and who’s already gone negative.
The Redistricting Argument Democrats Are Actually Winning.
The redistricting question loses. The hypocrisy argument wins. Tavern’s latest data shows a 17-point swing between those two framings of the exact same issue — and the Virginia map fight may determine House control. Here’s the frame that’s actually working.