The Tavern Take: Week of June 22, 2026
Show Us the Receipts: The Iran Deal and Housing – Voters spent last week granting wins and withholding trust. They back the Iran deal but split on its secret text, and reject suspending the Fifth Amendment.
NY-17 Democratic Primary: Conley Leads at 34%.
Cait Conley leads the NY-17 Democratic primary at 34%, Beth Davidson at 23%. The margin of error is 5%, and 28% of voters are still undecided.
The Tavern Take: Week of June 15, 2026
Voters spent last week drawing lines around power. Epstein hearings hit 72-16, the defense increase cratered at -36, and concrete stakes beat "democracy" by 38 points.
Maine Senate: Platner Leads Primary 68–16.
We ran two polls ahead of tomorrow’s Democratic Primary in Maine. One primary election poll and one general election poll. Platner is the favorite in tomorrow’s primary 68-16. Mills and Platner are almost identical in head to head matchups v. Collins, but both trail a generic Democrat.
The Tavern Take: Week of June 8, 2026
One frame beat values on every issue we tested last week. Here's what Tavern's daily polling found, starting with a 98-2 number that explains the rest.
NJ-07 Democratic Primary: Bennett Leads at 32%.
Bennett has the lead and the name recognition in NJ-07. The Democrats chasing her are better-liked than they are known, and 24% still haven't picked.
WA-05: Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails the Lone Independent.
Baumgartner beats every Democrat in WA-05 and loses to one independent. The whole swing is independents: 48% for a generic Dem, 69% for Powell.
AK-AL: Begich Leads Every Matchup. An Unknown Independent Runs Closest.
In Alaska's at-large race, the anti-Begich vote is bigger than any one opponent, and right now an independent carries it better than a Democrat.
WI-06: Grothman Leads Every Matchup. Independent, Michael Thurow, Cuts His Margin in Half.
In WI-06, the only thing that moves the ballot is the label on the challenger. A Democrat loses by 22. An independent loses by 10. Nobody can name either one.
The Lab: Gone in Sixteen Seconds
New research with Mind the Gap: we tested ad lengths from 6 to 60 seconds across 19,470 voters. Nearly all persuasion happens in the first 15. The rest is wasted spend.
Montana Senate: Bodnar Ties Alme Head-To-Head. Alme Leads When The Field Expands.
Independent Seth Bodnar ties Republican Kurt Alme 50-50 head-to-head, but Alme leads when Bodnar and a Democrat are both on the ballot.
PA-07 Democratic Primary: Brooks Leads With One Day to Go
New Tavern Research poll: Brooks leads PA-07 at 26%, with McClure at 17% and Crosswell at 16%. 31% undecided the day before the primary. The race isn't over.
NY-12 Democratic Primary: Bores Leads at 20%. The largest Bloc is Still Unclaimed.
The NY-12 Democratic Primary isn't a three-way tie. It's three candidates running three separate primaries in one election — and 28% of voters haven't picked a lane yet.
The Cutting Room Floor – May 15, 2026
This week's leftovers: Washington-speak gets penalized on Iran (-6.3 pts), wallet arguments beat doctrine by 10.6, Trump banks +23 on Ukraine without selling the narrative, Tennessee voters oppose the new map 47-26, and 86% say the government runs for the few. Take what you like. Have a weekend.
MaxDiff Memo: The CEOs Are the Trump-Xi Summit's Real Vulnerability
Voters back a White House visit for Xi by 20 points and oppose the Musk-Cook-Huang Beijing delegation by 17.5. The vulnerability is the CEOs in the room.
Voters Don't Want Global Health Money Paying for USAID's Dismantling.
61% of voters say we spend too much on foreign aid. The same voters oppose redirecting $3.2 billion in global health and development money to cover USAID shutdown costs, 38–31. They back a Senate-requested restoration timeline 48–22. The cleaner fight isn't defending the agency. It's the timeline.
LA Mayoral Primary: May 2026 Polling Snapshot
A May 1–4 survey of 531 likely LA primary voters: Bass 22%, Pratt 18%, Raman 16%. Head-to-heads, favorability, and the issues driving the race.
Virginia Voters Back the Court and the Map at the Same Time.
Virginia voters back the state Supreme Court's decision to strike down the voter-approved congressional map, 40–35. The same voters back Democratic officials' push to restore that map for 2026, 37–30. Between a quarter and a third are still undecided on each question. There's room for both arguments because the public hasn't picked one.
Ricketts Has an Independent Problem in Nebraska.
In Tavern's latest Nebraska Senate survey, Osborn leads Ricketts 47-42 in a head-to-head matchup, with 12% undecided. That margin is modest. The reason it exists is not complicated: Osborn is dominating independents.
The Cutting Room Floor – May 8, 2026
A $1B East Wing security upgrade tucked inside a $72B immigration enforcement bill is polling worse than the bill itself (46–24 against keeping it in). "Mass deportations are coming" splits 41–40, but the mechanism polls 12 points better than the label. And 86% of voters still think government runs for a few big interests — the soil every other story lands in.