Firing Noem Wasn’t Enough. The $220M Is Still on the Ledger.
The ad campaign polls at net −65. The firing polls at +47. And 73% want independent investigations into federal enforcement killings. Voters are running three accountability ledgers at once.
THE LAB: The Attention Problem
Voters will scroll past your typical spots. They'll watch ours. We call it mesmerizing content.
The Iran War Is Nine Days Old. Public Support Is a Coin Flip.
43-42 on the operation itself. −17 on the rationale. −14 on Dover. The public entered this war skeptical and nothing has changed their mind.
The Tavern Take: Week of March 9, 2026
Your Iran message should start at the gas pump, not the Constitution. "Truth Social chaos → market panic → higher prices" tests 40 points higher than hawkish justifications. Name the victims: single parents, seniors on fixed incomes.
The SCOTUS Tariff Ruling Changed Nothing
The Supreme Court's 6-3 decision striking down IEEPA tariffs is broadly popular: 56% support the ruling vs. 25% who oppose (net +31). Voters welcomed the institutional check on executive power.
Voters Side With Anthropic
The safety guardrails are popular. The ban is not. 45% support Anthropic's refusal to remove restrictions on mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. 29% oppose. The administration's crackdown is underwater on every dimension tested.
The Epstein Files Are a Supermajority Issue
The coverup frame is winning by 65 points. 73% of voters support requiring release of all withheld Epstein pages. 8% oppose. This is not a partisan issue. It's a transparency issue—and the administration's defensive posture is untenable.
The Iran Message That's Working
Connect Trump's Truth Social posts to the price at the pump. The top message—linking chaotic communication to gas price spikes—hits 75.7%. Messages asking voters to accept "short-term pain for long-term security" hit 35.9%. That's a 40-point gap.
The Tavern Take: Week of March 2, 2026
Your economic message IS your values message right now—and on foreign policy, the process argument is your opening. The Iran strikes poll at -19 with no rally effect. Lead with "Congress should vote" not "the strikes were wrong."
Iran Strikes Opposed by 19-Point Margin; Voters Back Congressional War Powers Vote
Voters oppose the joint US-Israel airstrikes by a 19-point margin. The constitutional process argument is cutting through.
The "Fight Trump" Playbook Is Losing to "Fix My Rent"
Affordability beats "protect California values" by 29 points. California incumbents need independent economic credibility. National grievance isn't enough.
Texas SENATE: Talarico Dominates Independents, Cornyn's Trump Pitch Backfires
Independent voters prefer Talarico over Crockett; Cornyn and Hunt edge out Paxton.
This Isn't an Immigration Debate. It's a Corruption Debate.
Lead with fairness, not policy. "Billionaires buying their way to the front of the line" beats "let's study the EU precedent" by 30 points. The moral frame outperforms the technocratic frame every time.
Every Issue Is an Economic Issue Now
Stop saying "rule of law." Start saying "chaos tax." The economic frame beats the constitutional frame by 25 points. Voters feel price instability before they feel constitutional crisis.
52% Say Excessive Force. 56% Say Too Far.
Americans aren't buying the administration's line on ICE, they want accountability for Minneapolis, and they oppose the abortion crackdown
Surprising new research finds Americans oppose technology that kills us, support technology that saves lives
Voters support some parts of the MAHA agenda and oppose other parts. Food safety reforms are popular, but voters oppose vaccine and public health cuts.