The NY-12 Democratic Primary: Bores Leads at 20%. The largest Bloc is Still Unclaimed.
May 15, 2026 | 2 min read
Alex Bores is at 20%, Jack Schlossberg at 17%, Micah Lasher at 16% – and the margin of error is 4.1%. This race is statistically tied at the top. The crosstabs reveal something more interesting than a dead heat: these three candidates are running in almost entirely separate demographic lanes, and those lanes are roughly equal in size.
We polled 910 likely Democratic primary voters in NY-12 from May 11–15. The top line looks like a three-way tie.
Download the full data: Toplines | Crosstabs.
ALEX BORES leads overall at 20%. Among men, he's at 27%. Among women, who are 57% of this electorate, he's at 15%. His strongest age group is 35–49 year olds, where he hits 34%. Among voters 65 and older, who make up 43% of the sample, he's at 18%.
JACK SCHLOSSBERG’s numbers nearly flip Bores's. He's at 20% among women and 13% among men. Among voters 65 and older, he's at 20% — best of any candidate in that cohort. Among 35–49 year olds, he's at 8%, and his net favorability with that group is -18. His overall unfavorables are 31%, highest of the three leaders. Only 19% of voters don't know him, meaning most of that negative number isn't movable.
MICAH LASHER is at 16% overall, and that number barely moves across subgroups.
Among men: 19%. Among women: 14%. Among Democrats: 17%. Among Independents: 13%. His best group is Hispanic voters at 22%, while Bores and Schlossberg are at 16% and 18% respectively in that cohort. His net favorability is +38, highest of the three leaders, with unfavorables at just 15%. Thirty-two percent of voters don't know him yet.
28% Haven't Decided
The undecided pool is bigger than the frontrunner's vote share. It skews younger and less white: 38% of 18–34 year olds are undecided, as are 42% of Black voters and 47% of Asian and other voters. Whoever moves that bloc is probably the winner. Right now, nobody has.
George Conway sits at 9%, drawing his support heavily from voters 65 and older (14%) and nearly disappearing among 18–34 year olds (1%).
Methodology: Online sample of 910 registered Democrats in New York’s 12th Congressional District who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary, fielded over text-to-web from May 11, 2026 to May 15, 2026. Results are weighted by gender, race, age, education, match likelihood, and vote history to be representative of likely Democratic primary voters. Party identification reflects respondents’ self-identification, not voter registration. Sample sizes shown in crosstabs are unweighted N-sizes. Independent identification in the crosstabs includes party leaners. The margin of error is 4.1%. Commissioned by Jobs and Democracy PAC. AI-assisted drafting, human-verified analysis. Powered by the same tools we build for our clients.
