MaxDiff Memo: The CEOs Are the Trump-Xi Summit's Real Vulnerability
Voters back a White House visit for Xi by 20 points and oppose the Musk-Cook-Huang Beijing delegation by 17.5. The vulnerability is the CEOs in the room.
Voters Don't Want Global Health Money Paying for USAID's Dismantling.
61% of voters say we spend too much on foreign aid. The same voters oppose redirecting $3.2 billion in global health and development money to cover USAID shutdown costs, 38–31. They back a Senate-requested restoration timeline 48–22. The cleaner fight isn't defending the agency. It's the timeline.
Virginia Voters Back the Court and the Map at the Same Time.
Virginia voters back the state Supreme Court's decision to strike down the voter-approved congressional map, 40–35. The same voters back Democratic officials' push to restore that map for 2026, 37–30. Between a quarter and a third are still undecided on each question. There's room for both arguments because the public hasn't picked one.
Louisiana Voting Rights Act: Lead With District Lines.
Adding the Voting Rights Act framing to Louisiana made voters more opposed, not less. Opposition widened from a 3-point margin to 6 when judges and the VRA were named. A third of voters are still undecided, and the legal frame isn't going to win them.
MaxDiff Memo: Frame Ice Funding As A Blank Check Lacking Financial Oversight
Voters aren’t debating immigration policy—they’re rejecting unchecked power. The top ICE funding message hits 70.9% by framing it as a “blank check” with no oversight. Here’s what works—and what fails.
The Cutting Room Floor – May 1, 2026
Press trust is at 0.4%. Foreign aid opposition is near-unanimous. And 79% of voters support the death penalty in principle — but only 44% back the specific DOJ expansion. This week’s cutting room floor has the numbers that didn’t fit anywhere else.
TrumpRx: Side Effects Include Nausea, Vomiting, and a Net -24.
A drug-pricing program polling at net -24 while the president sits at -12 isn’t a healthcare win — it’s a drag. Tavern’s latest data shows TrumpRx is the worst-performing policy in the survey, and the Protonix price comparison is why. Here’s what the numbers actually say about Kennedy’s HHS and who’s already gone negative.
The Redistricting Argument Democrats Are Actually Winning.
The redistricting question loses. The hypocrisy argument wins. Tavern’s latest data shows a 17-point swing between those two framings of the exact same issue — and the Virginia map fight may determine House control. Here’s the frame that’s actually working.
Hegseth Has Become a Liability That Rivals the President.
Hegseth’s net opposition (-20) is nearly as bad as Trump’s own net approval (-24). That’s not a personnel problem — it’s a presidential liability. New Tavern data shows impeachment support beating opposition by 11 points, and 48% of voters calling this a major factor in how they evaluate Trump.
After the WHCD Shooting, the Public Isn’t Choosing Between Order and Reform — They Want Both.
51% back “use all available force.” 67% want stricter gun laws. The electorate isn’t picking a side—they’re holding both.
The Tavern Take: Week of April 27, 2026
This week’s data points to a sequencing problem: voters move quickly once they’re paying attention. SCOTUS, Iran, and FISA all show the same thing—define early or lose the frame.
The SCOTUS Appointment Fight Is a Sleeping Giant. It's About to Wake Up.
Trump's SCOTUS appointment plans are already net -9. Only 6% of voters have heard about them. 49% say it's a major issue. That gap is the whole story — and it closes fast.
What the Bottom of the Iran Message Battery Tells You
Ally trust. Credibility. "Trump looks weak." These are the Iran messages some campaigns reach for first — and the ones that test dead last. The gap between best and worst is 35 points. Tavern's data breaks down exactly what's losing and why.
Trump's Two Weakest Flanks on Iran — And They Compound Each Other.
Trump's Iran strategy has two singular liabilities this week: a toll proposal voters see as corrupt (net -36, the worst margin tested) and a NATO posture they see as reckless (net -30). They're making the same argument.
The Government Can Search Your Data Without a Warrant. Voters Want That Fixed.
The government can search your data without a warrant. 62% of voters want that fixed — and Congress has 5 days to act before FISA Section 702 expires.
The Tavern Take: Week of April 13, 2026
Civilian harm is now the strongest Iran argument in Tavern's dataset — 72% top performer, 41-point gap from the worst Republican message. The birthright process argument hits as hard as the policy argument. And the ad-making model most campaigns are still running guarantees stale creative before voters ever see it.
The Human Cost of the Iran War Is Now the Argument That Wins.
Civilian harm is now the single strongest Iran frame in Tavern's message testing data — and the top-performing message scores 72 points against a 30.9-point Republican floor. Here's exactly what the winning messages say and why the accountability-plus-consequences combination is the argument to run right now.