The Tavern Take: Week of August 3, 2026
The biggest happenings of the week
Three polls, two states, new hires. Here's the Tavern week.
Michigan Swung 11 Points to El-Sayed in Three Weeks
We released two public polls in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary this month. You may have seen the stir they caused in Politico or on X.
We found that in 3 weeks, Abdul El-Sayed gained 11 pts on Haley Stevens (!) and now is leading by 10 pts.
The Free Press, The Hill, MLive, and Michigan Advance all wrote off our numbers.
Michigan votes Tuesday.
In Montana, the Field Remains Divided
Our second Montana Senate poll in two months, fielded July 23 to 27.
Republican Kurt Alme takes 49% in the full field. Independent Seth Bodnar takes 27%. Democrat Alani Bankhead takes 24%, behind the independent.
Head to head, Alme and Bodnar are virtually tied 51-49. But Alme beats Bankhead 59-41.
Two New Principals
This week we also announced two exciting new hires, both joining as principals. Erin Turmelle comes to us from the Biden campaign, the New Hampshire Democratic Party, and Team Cory Booker. before that.And Maxwell Nunes joins us from Team Pete Buttigieg, SKDK and Airbnb.
We are headed into the final 92 days with a team ready to win!
See you next week,
Tavern
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Methodology: Michigan surveys conducted by Tavern Research via text-to-web among likely Democratic primary voters. Wave 1 fielded July 6 to 7, 2026, n=2,212, margin of error ±2.5 points. Wave 2 fielded July 26 to 27, 2026, n=914, margin of error ±4.1 points. Both weighted by gender, race, age, education, match likelihood, and vote history. Both Michigan waves were funded by Tavern Research with no outside client. Montana survey fielded July 23 to 27, 2026 among likely general election voters, n=[TK], margin of error ±[TK], commissioned by [SPONSOR TK]. Prior Montana wave fielded May 13 to 18, 2026, n=607, margin of error ±5.1 points. AI-assisted drafting, human-verified analysis.
Want the full toplines or crosstabs behind any of these findings?Email data@tavernresearch.com
