Ricketts Has an Independent Problem in Nebraska.
May 11, 2026 | 2 min read
In Tavern's latest Nebraska survey, Pete Ricketts beats every Democrat we tested. He loses to Dan Osborn.
Against Osborn, Ricketts trails 42-47, with 12% undecided. Against Cindy Burbank, he wins 48-39. Against William J. Forbes, he wins 50-34. Against a generic Democrat — the cleanest test of the partisan baseline — he wins 49-42. Four ballots, same incumbent, same week. One of them looks competitive. Three of them don't.
The driving factor to this is independents. Against Osborn, independents break 62-20 for the challenger. Against Burbank, they break 48-29. Against Forbes, 47-30. Against a generic Democrat, 54-28. Osborn isn't picking up a few more independents than a Democrat would. He's running 14 points stronger with them than the generic Democratic baseline, and roughly doubling Forbes's margin with the same voters.
He's also pulling Republicans a Democrat can't reach. Osborn takes 14% of self-identified Republicans and 17% of Trump 2024 voters. A generic Democrat gets 8% and 9%. That's the difference between a 5-point race and a 7-point loss.
Favorability tracks the ballot. Osborn is net +11 (46/36). Ricketts is net -7 (43/50). Among independents, Osborn is +25 and Ricketts is -37. A two-term governor and former senator is underwater with the voters who decide statewide races in Nebraska, and the challenger beating him is the one who isn't running as a Democrat.
The read is simple: Ricketts is not especially weak against a Democrat. He is vulnerable against an independent who can win the center while holding Democratic voters. Osborn's lead is not huge, but it is structurally real.
One thing we're still working out: how durable is Osborn's independent share once Ricketts spends real money defining him? Osborn's 2024 run gave us a partial answer. He held the crossover through a heavy paid environment and still lost by 7. Different opponent, different cycle, and a worse incumbent fav number to start from. We'll re-test after the first major ad push.
For the full results: Toplines and Crosstabs
Methodology: Online sample of 1165 likely voters fielded over web panels and text to web from May 08, 2026 to May 11, 2026 and weighted by gender, race, education, potus 2024 and age. Respondents were also weighted by whether they passed attention checks. The margin of error is 3.5%. Commissioned by Contours Inc., as part of its research and public education program. AI-assisted drafting, human-verified analysis. Powered by the same tools we build for our clients.
