NY-17 Democratic Primary: Conley Leads at 34%.

Cait Conley's lead over Beth Davidson clears the margin of error.

June 16, 2026 | 2 min read

Cait Conley leads the NY-17 Democratic primary at 34%, Beth Davidson is at 23%, and Effie Phillips-Staley is at 13%. The margin of error is 5.0%. Conley's 11-point lead over Davidson is more than twice that, so the order at the top is settled. One week out from the June 23 primary, 28% of likely Democratic voters are still undecided, a bloc larger than Davidson's entire share of the vote.

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The Ballot Test

The survey reached 574 likely Democratic primary voters between June 12 and June 16, with a margin of error of 5.0%. The order holds when the ballot narrows to the three named contenders: Conley 35%, Davidson 22%, Phillips-Staley 12%, with 29% undecided. Conley's lead over Davidson runs 11 points in the full field and 13 in the three-way, both past twice the margin of error. Davidson's edge over Phillips-Staley is 10 points. The gaps at the top clear the margin of error.

The undecided pool is the variable to watch. At 28%, it is larger than Davidson's share and roughly four-fifths of Conley's. Among voters who have already picked someone, 58% say they are locked in and 42% say they might still change their mind (n=384). The undecideds are not soft leaners hiding a preference: when the not-sure voters were forced to name a most-likely pick, 87% still wouldn't (n=172).

Second choices break toward Davidson, not the leader. Among voters open to switching, Davidson is the most common backup at 20%, Conley is next at 14%, and 54% name no second choice at all.

Candidate Favorability

Conley posts the highest net favorability at +44, on 61% favorable against 17% unfavorable. Davidson is close behind at +42, on 57% favorable and 15% unfavorable. Phillips-Staley sits at +28. Nobody in the field is underwater.

Name recognition is where the field separates. 49% of voters are not familiar with Phillips-Staley, against 27% for Davidson and 23% for Conley. Sacks and Cappello are unknown to 66% and 71% of the electorate. Even the two frontrunners have a quarter of likely voters still forming a first impression, which is the room the ballot has left to move with a week to go.

Methodology: Online sample of 574 likely Democratic primary voters fielded over text to web from June 12, 2026 to June 16, 2026 and weighted by gender, race, age, education, match likelihood, and vote history. The margin of error is 5.0%. AI-assisted drafting, human-verified analysis. Powered by the same tools we build for our clients.

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