NJ-07 Democratic Primary: Bennett Leads at 32%.
Bennett has the lead and the name recognition. The three Democrats chasing her are better-liked than they are known, and 24% of voters still haven't picked a candidate.
June 1, 2026 | 3 min read
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Rebecca Bennett leads the NJ-07 Democratic primary at 32%. Tina Shah is at 16%, Brian Varela at 15%, and Michael Roth at 12%, and the margin of error is 5.4%. Bennett is the only candidate over 20%. What isn't settled is everything behind her: 24% of likely primary voters are undecided, a larger bloc than any single challenger has won.
The Ballot Test
Bennett's 32% sits 16 points clear of Shah, well outside the margin of error, so her lead is genuine. The fight for second is not. Shah (16%), Varela (15%), and Roth (12%) are bunched inside the 5.4% margin, which makes second place a three-way tie. One in four voters chose "not sure."
Favorability: A Field That's Liked but Unknown
Every Democrat in this field is net positive. What separates them is how many voters can rate them at all.
Bennett is the best-known name in the race. Only 22% can't rate her, the lowest "not familiar" figure of the four, and she has turned that recognition into a ballot lead. Varela posts the best net favorability at +48, with just 9% rating him unfavorably, but 35% of voters still don't know him. Roth is the least familiar: 46% have never heard of him, even though the ones who have rate him +38.
Bennett's challengers are well-liked by the voters who know them and unknown to everyone else. Their ceiling is a question of name recognition, not likeability, so the order behind her can still change.
Methodology: Online sample of 479 likely primary voters, fielded over text to web from May 31, 2026 to June 1, 2026, weighted by gender, race, age, education, match likelihood, and vote history. Margin of error 5.4%. Internally researched by Tavern. AI-assisted drafting, human-verified analysis. Powered by the same tools we build for our clients.
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