WA-05: Baumgartner Leads Democrats, Trails the Lone Independent.
Michael Baumgartner leads all four Democratic matchups and the generic ballot. Put an independent in front of him and he trails 47-53.
May 29, 2026 | 3 min read
Michael Baumgartner is ahead of every Democrat we tested in Washington's 5th. He leads Carmela Conroy 53-47, David Womack and Bajun Mavalwalla 54-46, and a generic Democrat 53-47. The margin of error is 5.6%, so each of those gaps sits inside the margin. They're nominal leads, not safe ones. Then we swapped the Democrat for independent Nate Powell, and the same incumbent trails 47-53. The party label is doing the work.
Download the data: Toplines (PDF) | Crosstabs (PDF)
The Ballot Test: Baumgartner Clears the Democratic Field
Baumgartner runs between 53% and 54% against every Democrat and against the generic ballot, and none of those leads clears the margin of error. He barely moves no matter who's across from him. For a Republican incumbent in a district where Trump's approval is underwater, sitting just above 50% isn't a comfortable place to be. Conroy, the best-known Democrat, holds him to 53-47, and the rest land in the same spot.
These five matchups went to all 578 likely voters, fielded May 18 to 25. Each is a forced choice between two names, so the shares sum to 100 and there's no undecided line to report here.
The Powell Exception
Against Nate Powell, the same incumbent trails 47-53. Independents are the reason. Against a generic Democrat, independents back Baumgartner 52-48. Against Powell, they flip to the independent 69-31. That's a 21-point move among independents, and the only thing that changed was the label on the challenger.
Powell also wins women 56-44 and voters under 50, while Baumgartner holds men and voters over 50. Those age and gender splits are unremarkable. Independents are the only group that swings the outcome.
Name ID: Nobody Knows the Challengers
Powell beats Baumgartner head-to-head while 83% of voters don't recognize his name. A share that big, built on voters who can't describe the candidate, is soft. His 53% looks like a parking spot for voters who want to fire the incumbent but won't vote for a Democrat, not real support for Powell himself. Every Democrat we tested carries the same name-ID problem, with 72% to 86% unfamiliar, and none of them converts independents the way Powell does.
The Environment: A Trump District That Soured
WA-05 voters recall backing Trump over Harris 54-43 in 2024. Today Trump's job approval here is 39-59, a net -21. Party identification still tilts Republican, 36% to 31%, with 28% calling themselves independent. That independent bloc is large enough to decide the seat, and right now it's shopping. It stays with Baumgartner against a Democrat and leaves him against an independent.
What We're Still Working Out
Powell's lead rests almost entirely on voters who have never heard of him. Whether it survives once Baumgartner spends real money to define him is the open question, and we don't have a read on that yet. We'll re-test after the first real ad push.
Methodology: Online sample of 578 likely voters fielded over web panels from May 18, 2026 to May 25, 2026 and weighted by gender, race, education, 2024 presidential vote, and age. Respondents were also weighted by whether they passed attention checks. The margin of error is 5.6%. AI-assisted drafting, human-verified analysis. Powered by the same tools we build for our clients.
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