Texas SENATE: Talarico Dominates Independents, Cornyn's Trump Pitch Backfires
Independent voters prefer Talarico over Crockett; Cornyn and Hunt edge out Paxton.
February 25, 2026 | 3 min read
BOTTOM LINE
Talarico wins the Democratic comparison. Independent respondents who watched the Democratic debate clips preferred Talarico over Crockett 76-24 as the better senator. After the debate, Talarico surged 19 points — more than double Crockett's 9-point gain.
Hunt and Cornyn lead Paxton. Independent respondents who read issue positions and messaging based on Republican candidate statements said that Hunt and Cornyn would make better senators than Paxton with 41%, 38%, and 20% of support, respectively. Cornyn swept all four policy issues, but Hunt won the campaign message — independents rejected Cornyn's Trump-heavy pitch.
Democratic Primary: Talarico Pulls Away
Talarico won every issue tested: opening statements (69-31), immigration & ICE (75-25), taxes (60-40), affordability (73-27), healthcare (76-24), and closing statements (78-22).
The partisan-lean pattern: Talarico's lead was narrower among Democratic-leaning independents (62%), larger among pure independents (75%), and largest among Republican-leaning independents (89%). The more Republican-leaning the voter, the stronger Talarico's advantage.
In general-election matchups, Talarico jumped to 69% support after the debate while Crockett reached 59%—a 10-point gap. Talarico outperformed the Democratic average by +5.1 percentage points; Crockett underperformed by -5.1 points.
Republican Primary: Cornyn Wins Policy, Hunt Wins Message
Cornyn led on all four policy areas—border security (53%), healthcare (50%), economy & taxes (56%), and affordability (47%). But Hunt dominated the campaign message comparison (53% to Cornyn's 26%), emphasizing generational change over Cornyn's Trump-heavy pitch.
The Trump factor: Among reasons independents gave for disliking Cornyn, "Trump/MAGA Alignment" topped the list at 30%. Hunt faced similar criticism (22% cited Trump/MAGA alignment as a negative), but his "fresh leadership" message (cited positively by 30%) offset it.
Paxton trailed on every measure. His strongest appeal—"anti-establishment/outsider/patriotism"—registered with 42% of those who liked him, but that base was small. In general-election matchups, Paxton underperformed the Republican average by -1.6 points.
The partisan-lean divide among independents: Democratic-leaning independents favor Cornyn (52%) over Hunt (35%) and Paxton (13%). Republican-leaning independents favor Hunt (47%) over Cornyn (29%) and Paxton (25%). Pure independents fall in between: Hunt (41%), Cornyn (38%), Paxton (21%).
What This Means
For the Democratic Primary: Talarico's communication style consolidated support across independent voter segments. His strongest performances came on healthcare and closing statements.
For the Republican Primary: Cornyn has a policy advantage but a messaging problem. His close alignment with President Trump cost him among independents—the voters who will decide the general election. Hunt's "generational change" pitch outperformed despite thinner policy specifics.
For the General Election: Before any content exposure, Cornyn led narrowly in general-election matchups (51.7% average). After all content, Hunt edged ahead (45.0% to Cornyn's 43.4%). The candidate who wins the Republican primary will face different challenges against Talarico versus Crockett.
Methodology: On 02.08.2026 – 02.14.2026, Tavern Research surveyed 1,070 Texas independent voters — defined as self-identified independents who are registered to vote — to test how they respond to the messages and debate performances of the candidates in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race. They watched clips from the January 24, 2026 AFL-CIO Democratic primary debate between James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett, then read policy positions from the three leading Republican primary candidates: John Cornyn, Wesley Hunt, and Ken Paxton. Support figures in this report include respondents who initially said "not sure" but chose a candidate when pushed; toplines and crosstabs break these out separately. Toplines and crosstabs are available upon request.
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