LA Mayoral Primary: May 2026 Polling Snapshot
A May 1–4 survey of 531 likely LA primary voters: Bass 22%, Pratt 18%, Raman 16%. Head-to-heads, favorability, and the issues driving the race.
Virginia Voters Back the Court and the Map at the Same Time.
Virginia voters back the state Supreme Court's decision to strike down the voter-approved congressional map, 40–35. The same voters back Democratic officials' push to restore that map for 2026, 37–30. Between a quarter and a third are still undecided on each question. There's room for both arguments because the public hasn't picked one.
Ricketts Has an Independent Problem in Nebraska.
In Tavern's latest Nebraska Senate survey, Osborn leads Ricketts 47-42 in a head-to-head matchup, with 12% undecided. That margin is modest. The reason it exists is not complicated: Osborn is dominating independents.
The Cutting Room Floor – May 8, 2026
A $1B East Wing security upgrade tucked inside a $72B immigration enforcement bill is polling worse than the bill itself (46–24 against keeping it in). "Mass deportations are coming" splits 41–40, but the mechanism polls 12 points better than the label. And 86% of voters still think government runs for a few big interests — the soil every other story lands in.
The Playbook: A Case Study – What We Do vs. The Normal Guys.
Most campaigns make ads on stale data and consultant instinct. Tavern tests 200+ variations and hits the air in 5 days. Stop guessing and start winning.
Louisiana Voting Rights Act: Lead With District Lines.
Adding the Voting Rights Act framing to Louisiana made voters more opposed, not less. Opposition widened from a 3-point margin to 6 when judges and the VRA were named. A third of voters are still undecided, and the legal frame isn't going to win them.
MaxDiff Memo: Frame Ice Funding As A Blank Check Lacking Financial Oversight
Voters aren’t debating immigration policy—they’re rejecting unchecked power. The top ICE funding message hits 70.9% by framing it as a “blank check” with no oversight. Here’s what works—and what fails.
The Cutting Room Floor – May 1, 2026
Press trust is at 0.4%. Foreign aid opposition is near-unanimous. And 79% of voters support the death penalty in principle — but only 44% back the specific DOJ expansion. This week’s cutting room floor has the numbers that didn’t fit anywhere else.
TrumpRx: Side Effects Include Nausea, Vomiting, and a Net -24.
A drug-pricing program polling at net -24 while the president sits at -12 isn’t a healthcare win — it’s a drag. Tavern’s latest data shows TrumpRx is the worst-performing policy in the survey, and the Protonix price comparison is why. Here’s what the numbers actually say about Kennedy’s HHS and who’s already gone negative.
The Redistricting Argument Democrats Are Actually Winning.
The redistricting question loses. The hypocrisy argument wins. Tavern’s latest data shows a 17-point swing between those two framings of the exact same issue — and the Virginia map fight may determine House control. Here’s the frame that’s actually working.
Hegseth Has Become a Liability That Rivals the President.
Hegseth’s net opposition (-20) is nearly as bad as Trump’s own net approval (-24). That’s not a personnel problem — it’s a presidential liability. New Tavern data shows impeachment support beating opposition by 11 points, and 48% of voters calling this a major factor in how they evaluate Trump.
After the WHCD Shooting, the Public Isn’t Choosing Between Order and Reform — They Want Both.
51% back “use all available force.” 67% want stricter gun laws. The electorate isn’t picking a side—they’re holding both.
The Tavern Take: Week of April 27, 2026
This week’s data points to a sequencing problem: voters move quickly once they’re paying attention. SCOTUS, Iran, and FISA all show the same thing—define early or lose the frame.
The Playbook: Real People. Real Responses. Real Results.
AI shouldn't be a shortcut to worse results. Tavern uses human-centered intelligence to field polls by 9 AM and test hundreds of messages to find the one that actually moves voters.
The SCOTUS Appointment Fight Is a Sleeping Giant. It's About to Wake Up.
Trump's SCOTUS appointment plans are already net -9. Only 6% of voters have heard about them. 49% say it's a major issue. That gap is the whole story — and it closes fast.
What the Bottom of the Iran Message Battery Tells You
Ally trust. Credibility. "Trump looks weak." These are the Iran messages some campaigns reach for first — and the ones that test dead last. The gap between best and worst is 35 points. Tavern's data breaks down exactly what's losing and why.
The Cutting Room Floor – April 17, 2026
Dead-last messages, a 25-point accountability gap, and an immigration bill 68% of voters have never heard of. Seven findings from a heavy week.