Montana Senate: Bodnar Ties Alme Head-To-Head. Alme Leads When The Field Expands.
May 19, 2026 | 3 min read
A new Montana Senate poll shows that voters are open to someone other than the Republican: the best path to defeating Republican Kurt Alme in the general election is a head-to-head matchup with Independent Seth Bodnar. Every Democrat tested would lose by a wide margin, and a multi-way race with both Democratic and Independent candidates would only expand Alme's margin.
Montana is still Republican terrain. Donald Trump won the state by roughly 20 points in 2024. In this poll, his job approval among likely voters sits at 49-49, dead even. That makes the head-to-head Senate result worth a closer look: voters are not broadly rejecting the Republican brand, but they are open to a non-Republican alternative under the right ballot conditions.
In a head-to-head test, Seth Bodnar ties Republican Kurt Alme, 50-50. That’s the main finding in the poll, and the one that should shape how people read the rest of the race. In the same survey, Alme beats Democrat Reilly Neill 58-42 and beats a generic Democrat 56-44. Bodnar is doing something the Democratic label is not doing in this data: keeping the race even.
The four-way ballot benefits Alme
When the ballot expands, Alme’s position improves. In the four-way test, Alme leads with 46%, followed by Bodnar at 26%, Neill at 24%, and Libertarian Tom Jandron at 3%.
That does not prove every Neill voter would otherwise vote for Bodnar. It does show the central tension in the data: the non-Alme vote is large enough to make the race competitive, but it fragments when Bodnar and a Democrat are both on the ballot.
The race is still low-information
The poll captures an early race where name ID is still soft. Sixty-six percent of voters say they are not sure about Bodnar or have never heard of him. Alme is also poorly known: 55% are not sure or have never heard of him. Neill is even less defined at 77% not sure / never heard of her.
That matters because the ballot numbers are not fully locked in. They are early structural signals: what happens when voters see party labels, a few names, and a basic choice architecture. However, even a generic “A Democratic Candidate” trails Alme by a large margin. These results do suggest it would be difficult for a Democrat to win against Alme.
Bodnar’s strongest path comes from independents
In the head-to-head, Bodnar beats Alme among independents, 59-41. In the four-way ballot, independents split 45% Bodnar / 36% Alme / 14% Neill / 5% Jandron. Bodnar still leads independents when the ballot gets crowded, but his margin narrows. Neill takes enough independent support to change the shape of the contest, while Alme remains the plurality leader overall.
For the full results: Toplines and Crosstabs
Methodology: Online sample of 607 likely voters fielded over web panels from May 13, 2026 to May 18, 2026 and weighted by gender, race, education, 2024 presidential vote and age. Respondents were also weighted by whether they passed attention checks. Undecided respondents in trial-heat matchups were asked which candidate they leaned toward and were not offered a final undecided option. The margin of error is 5.1%. Commissioned by Contours Inc., as part of its research and public education program. AI-assisted drafting, human-verified analysis. Powered by the same tools we build for our clients.
