PA-07 Democratic Primary: Brooks Leads With One Day to Go
May 18, 2026 | 3 min read
A new Tavern Research poll of 613 likely primary voters in Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district finds that Bob Brooks is the frontrunner going into Tuesday at 26%. Lamont McClure and Ryan Crosswell are within 10 at 17% and 18%, respectively. 31% of likely Democratic primary voters are still undecided.
Download the full Toplines here.
The undecided share is larger than Brooks’ margin over the two candidates behind him, and in a four-way primary with low overall name recognition, that's a live race.
Why Name ID Is the Whole Story
Every candidate in this field has strong favorables among voters who know them. Brooks nets +33 (54% favorable, 21% unfavorable). McClure nets +37 — the best of anyone in the field — but 32% of voters haven't formed a view of him yet. Crosswell nets +28 with 34% still unfamiliar. Obando-Derstine is unknown to 51% of the district, which makes her 40% favorable almost entirely a floor reading.
Nobody here is unpopular. The race is about who voters have heard of, and Brooks has heard-of on everyone else.
What the 31% Means
In most primaries, an undecided share this size this late consolidates around the frontrunner. It doesn't have to here. The candidates within striking distance of Brooks — McClure and Crosswell are separated from him by 9 and 10 points, respectively — both have favorable ratios that match or beat his among voters who know them. McClure's net favorable of +37 is the strongest in the field. If his name ID closes in the final 24 hours, the ballot test looks different tomorrow night.
Brooks is the candidate to beat. That's different from being the candidate who wins.
Methodology: Online sample of 613 likely primary voters fielded over text to web on May 17, 2026 and weighted by gender, race, age, education, and vote history. The margin of error is 4.4%. AI-assisted drafting, human-verified analysis. Powered by the same tools we build for our clients.
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