WI-06: Grothman Leads Every Matchup. Independent, Michael Thurow, Cuts His Margin in Half.
May 29, 2026 | 4 min read
Glenn Grothman wins every version of this race. Against a generic Democrat, he leads 61-39. Against Brad Smith, the named Democrat, the margin is identical at 61-39. Put him against independent Michael Thurow and it tightens to 55-45. The margin of error is 6.0%.
The challenger's party label moves this ballot more than the challenger does. A Democrat loses by 22. An independent loses by 10.
Download the data: Toplines (PDF) | Crosstabs (PDF)
The Ballot Test
All three matchups were forced choice, no undecided option:
Grothman vs. a generic Democrat: 61-39
Grothman vs. Brad Smith (D): 61-39
Grothman vs. Michael Thurow (I): 55-45
Thurow takes 45% to the Democrat's 39%. That 6-point gain halves Grothman's margin, from 22 points down to 10. Grothman's 10-point lead over Thurow sits outside the margin of error, but it is a different race from the 22-point wall the Democrats run into.
The Independent Lane Is an Independents Story
The label swap doesn't touch partisans. Trump 2024 voters back Grothman over Thurow 89-11. Harris voters back Thurow 91-9. Nobody crosses.
The movement is entirely among independents (n=138). Against Brad Smith, independents split 52-48 for Grothman. Against a generic Democrat, they split 50-50. Run the same voters against Thurow and it flips hard: independents break for Thurow 64-36, 16 points better than the named Democrat does with the same group. The independent label consolidates voters who already reject both parties rather than pulling Republicans across.
Favorability: One Known Quantity, Five Strangers
Grothman is the only figure anyone can place, and barely. His net favorability is +2, and 24% still have no read on him after years in the seat. Every challenger tested sits at near-total anonymity. Brad Smith and Michael Thurow are both unknown to roughly 9 in 10 voters.
That soft name ID is the real uncertainty here. A forced-choice ballot has no undecided column, so the room to move lives in the 88-90% who can't yet name the challenger. The 55-45 Thurow race is built on a candidate almost no one has heard of.
The Environment
Party ID in the district runs Republican: 46% Republican, 25% Democrat, 24% independent. Voters recall backing Trump over Harris 58-41 in 2024. Trump's job approval, though, is underwater at 48% approve, 49% disapprove, a net -1 that runs well behind his recalled vote share. His favorability is a near-mirror, 51-48. The district still leans red. Its enthusiasm for the top of the ticket has cooled.
What We're Watching
The 10-point Thurow race rests on a name 90% of voters have never heard. We don't know yet whether his independent share is a durable lane or a parking spot for "not the Democrat." We'll re-test once any of these challengers has real name ID and an ad budget behind it.
Methodology: Online sample of 437 likely voters fielded over web panels from May 18, 2026 to May 28, 2026, weighted by gender, race, education, 2024 presidential vote, and age, and by whether respondents passed attention checks. Margin of error 6.0%. AI-assisted drafting, human-verified analysis. Powered by the same tools we build for our clients.
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